Report published September 23, 2026
Vietnam: A Massive Infrastructure Push Is Here – Bank J. Safra Sarasin Research
Bank J. Safra Sarasin · September 23, 2026
Vietnam's inclusion in FTSE Russell's emerging market indices and a $320 billion infrastructure program are set to drive 10% targeted annual GDP growth from 2026 to 2030. However, surging capital imports and chip costs have swung the trade balance into deficit, increasing depreciation risks for the Vietnamese dong and spurring expected foreign bond issuance.
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Finvaulta summarizes Bank J. Safra Sarasin's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Vietnam has been added to FTSE Russell's emerging market indices with inclusion phased over the next 12 months, boosting medium-term equity inflows.
- 2.Vietnam is targeting 10% annual GDP growth from 2026 to 2030, supported by an aggressive $320 billion infrastructure plan in energy, transport, and logistics.
- 3.Large infrastructure imports and higher chip prices have turned the trade balance into a deficit, which will likely shift the current account into a deficit and pressure the Vietnamese dong.
Table of Contents
- Vietnam: A massive infrastructure push is here
- Vietnam is now a part of the emerging market equity universe
- Ongoing drive to transform the country with a comprehensive structural reform program and massive infrastructure investment plans
- Vietnam has been the fastest-growing economy in Asia since 2025
- Mega projects will likely drive the current account into a small deficit over the next few years
- Pressure on the VND could ramp up as mega projects are implemented. We expect more international bond issuance in the coming years
Report data
Exhibit 5: Year-to-date trade deficit
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Target Annual GDP Growth Rate | 10% | Vietnam government's official GDP growth target for 2026 to 2030. |
| H1 GDP Growth Rate | 8.2% | First half economic growth rate making Vietnam the fastest-growing economy in Asia. |
| Infrastructure Investment Plan | 320 USD billion | Government plan covering energy, transport, and logistics, equaling roughly 65% of 2025 GDP. |
| Trade Deficit | -19 USD billion | Trade balance shifted from a $19 billion surplus in the prior year to a $19 billion deficit year-to-date. |
| Current Account Surplus | 30 USD billion | Represented around 6% of GDP in the preceding 2-3 years before shifting in 2026. |
Reports in this series
Emerging Markets Weekly is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 23, 2026.
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