Report published August 17, 2026
Intraday FX View: Bank J. Safra Sarasin on USD Weakness and Major Currency Dynamics
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Bank J. Safra Sarasin
- Report date
- August 17, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Finvaulta summarizes Bank J. Safra Sarasin's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
J. Safra Sarasin's FX trading desk highlights broad US dollar weakness driven by collapsing Fed rate hike expectations following a string of weak US jobs, inflation, and retail sales reports. The desk maintains a bullish bias on JPY, a topside bias on AUD/USD, expects USD/CHF to target 0.82, and watches key technical levels across GBP/USD and USD/CAD.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Weak US macroeconomic data (jobs, inflation, and retail sales) is driving broad USD weakness and unwinding Fed rate hike pricing.
- 2.The trading desk anticipates USD/CHF to break below 0.82 and favors long AUD, CAD, and JPY positions versus CHF.
- 3.Desk remains bullish on JPY with intervention fears capping USD/JPY upside, despite softer Japanese GDP pushing back BoJ hike expectations.
Table of Contents
- EUR/USD (1.1608)
- USD/CHF (0.8081)
- GBP/USD (1.3567)
- USD/JPY (158.91)
- AUD/USD (0.7121)
- USD/CAD (1.3854)
- Important Information
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Japanese GDP SA QoQ | 0.3% | Japanese GDP came in below survey expectations of 0.5% |
| Japanese GDP Annualized | 1.1% | Annualized GDP came in at 1.1% vs. 2% expectations |
| British CPI Acceleration Expectation | 0.3% | British CPI expected to accelerate from 0.1% previous to 0.3% |
| Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence SA MoM | 4.1% | Expected solid increase of +4.1% |
| Australian Employment Change Forecast | 12000 jobs | Looking for slowdown to +12k vs. +76.3k previous |
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Intraday FX View is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 17, 2026.
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Reported Data Context
- Japanese GDP SA QoQ: 0.3 % (Q2)
- British CPI Acceleration Expectation: 0.3 % (Monthly)
- Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence SA MoM: 4.1 % (Monthly) · Source: Westpac
- Australian Employment Change Forecast: 12000 jobs (Monthly)
- Australian Unemployment Rate Forecast: 4.4 % (Monthly)