Report published September 23, 2026
FX Daily Commentary: Oil Eases on Geopolitical Relief as Fed Hawkishness Supports US Dollar
Bank J. Safra Sarasin · September 23, 2026
Crude oil prices fell overnight as Brent dropped under $100 on Middle East diplomatic hopes, while the US dollar held firm amid expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Markets are pricing a 53% probability of another Fed hike in October following hawkish commentary from regional Fed presidents.
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Finvaulta summarizes Bank J. Safra Sarasin's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Crude oil prices eased overnight below key thresholds on Middle East diplomatic de-escalation hopes, with Brent falling 1.09% to $99.25 and WTI dropping 2.00% to $90.52.
- 2.Hawkish comments from Fed officials Barkin and Collins reinforced inflation worries, leading markets to price in a 53% probability of an October rate hike and 32 bps of tightening by year-end.
- 3.The US dollar remained firm with the BBDXY up 0.07% to 1205.30, while G10 FX was mixed; RBNZ Governor Breman warned that elevated oil prices could push New Zealand inflation above previous forecasts.
Table of Contents
- Greasy
Report data
Foreign Exchange
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude Price | 99.25 USD/bbl | Brent crude futures slipped below $100 on Middle East diplomatic breakthrough hopes. |
| WTI Crude Price | 90.52 USD/bbl | West Texas Intermediate closed lower alongside broad energy market easing. |
| Market Implied Probability of Fed October Rate Hike | 53% | Markets pricing odds of an October Fed rate hike following comments from Fed Presidents Barkin and Collins. |
| Expected Fed Rate Tightening by Year-End | 32 bps | Total tightening priced into US interest rate markets through year-end. |
| Bloomberg Dollar Index (BBDXY) Close | 1205.30 Index points | USD held firm against major currencies. |
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