Report published August 26, 2026
FX Daily Commentary: Australian Inflation Surprises, Canada Retaliatory Tariffs, and Global FX Outlook
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Bank J. Safra Sarasin
- Report date
- August 26, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Clarine Liew
Finvaulta summarizes Bank J. Safra Sarasin's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Bank J. Safra Sarasin's daily FX commentary highlights narrow range-trading across major currencies ahead of US PCE data and Jackson Hole. Market moves were shaped by Middle East de-escalation hopes, hot Australian inflation data boosting RBA hike odds, and Canadian retaliatory tariffs on US goods.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Diplomatic talks between Iran and Oman regarding a navigational corridor in the Strait of Hormuz supported market sentiment, lowering bond yields and oil prices.
- 2.Higher-than-expected Australian July CPI (1.0% MoM) and trimmed mean core inflation (0.5% MoM, 3.6% YoY) drove AUD/USD higher and increased pricing for an RBA rate hike.
- 3.Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on approximately $20 billion of US imports effective September 8 across roughly 700 products.
Table of Contents
- Foreign Exchange
- Interest Rates
- Volatilities (1M ATM Spot)
- Strained silence
- Important Legal Information
- Hong Kong
- Singapore
Report data
Foreign Exchange
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg Dollar Index (BBDXY) Close | 1192.37 | Edged marginally lower overnight |
| Australia Monthly CPI | 1.0% | Gained 1.0% MoM vs 0.8% forecast, driven by 7.5% fuel price jump |
| Australia Trimmed Mean Core Inflation | 3.6% | Increased 0.5% MoM vs 0.3% expected, annual pace at 3.6% |
| RBA Next Month Rate Hike Probability | 32% | Markets nudged up the chance of an RBA rate hike next month following the hot CPI release |
| Canada Retaliatory Tariffs on US Imports | 20 billion USD | Duties of 15%, 25%, and 50% across ~700 imported products |
Reports in this series
FX Daily Commentary is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 26, 2026.
Part of the FX Daily Commentary series — view all 5 editions
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Bloomberg Dollar Index (BBDXY) Close: 1192.37 (2026-08-25) · Source: Bloomberg
- Australia Monthly CPI: 1.0 % (July 2026)
- Australia Trimmed Mean Core Inflation: 3.6 % (July 2026)
- RBA Next Month Rate Hike Probability: 32 % (September 2026)
- Canada Retaliatory Tariffs on US Imports: 20 billion USD (Effective 2026-09-08)