Report published August 17, 2026
FX Daily Commentary: US Dollar Slips on Soft Retail Sales as Oil Gains – Bank J. Safra Sarasin
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Bank J. Safra Sarasin
- Report date
- August 17, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Clarine Liew
Finvaulta summarizes Bank J. Safra Sarasin's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
The Bloomberg Dollar Index dropped 0.23% following weak US retail sales and falling consumer sentiment, boosting major currencies against the USD. Meanwhile, Brent crude rose to $88.52 per barrel amid escalating Middle East tensions and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Weak US July retail sales (-0.6%) and a fall in University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment to 51.0 pushed the Bloomberg Dollar Index down 0.23% to 1201.17.
- 2.Brent crude rose 1.67% to $88.52/bbl amid stalled US-Iran talks and slowed Strait of Hormuz tanker shipping due to attacks.
- 3.Markets are pricing a 28.6% implied probability of a 25 bps rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its September 16 meeting.
Table of Contents
- Crosscurrents
- Important Legal Information
- Important Notice
- Derivatives Warning
- Complex Product Warning
- Hong Kong Selling Restriction
- Singapore
- Singapore Selling Restriction
Report data
Foreign Exchange
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| US Retail Sales | -0.6% | First decline since last October, compared to expected +0.1% lift. |
| University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index | 51.0 index points | Dropped from 55.2 in July due to worries over rising cost of living and Middle East conflict. |
| Bloomberg Dollar Index (BBDXY) | 1201.17 index points | Ended lower following weak US retail sales and consumer sentiment data. |
| Brent Crude Price | 88.52 USD/bbl | Rose amid stalled US-Iran talks and Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- US Retail Sales: -0.6 % (July 2026)
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 51.0 index points (August 2026) · Source: University of Michigan
- Bloomberg Dollar Index (BBDXY): 1201.17 index points (Last trading day) · Source: Bloomberg
- Brent Crude Price: 88.52 USD/bbl (Last trading day) · Source: Bloomberg