Report published August 25, 2026
Bank J. Safra Sarasin EMFX Weekly: Strategic Outlook on MXN, ZAR, BRL, and TRY
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Bank J. Safra Sarasin
- Report date
- August 25, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Volkan Ugur Karagol (Trading Desk / Author)
Finvaulta summarizes Bank J. Safra Sarasin's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
J. Safra Sarasin's FX trading desk maintains a bullish stance on MXN and ZAR, utilizing cash longs and topside call-selling options strategies. In contrast, the desk avoids directional cash exposure in BRL amid narrowing election polls and remains neutral on TRY following an unexpected rate cut mechanism by the CBRT.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Maintain a bullish directional view on MXN near the 17.00 handle, supported by solid 2Q GDP (+1.4%), above-target inflation keeping Banxico on hold, and selling topside USD/MXN via 3-month 17.33 call USD / put MXN options.
- 2.Long ZAR cash directionality is favored, driven by a strong gold rally up toward $4,700/oz and an attractive carry trade environment, with room to sell topside USD/ZAR in options.
- 3.Exercise caution on BRL due to election headline volatility narrowing Lula's lead to 1%, and stay neutral on TRY following CBRT's surprise shift to the 37% policy rate for repo auctions.
Table of Contents
- Week in Review
- Data calendar
- USD / MXN (16.9485)
- USD / BRL (5.1527)
- USD / ZAR (16.0080)
- USD / TRY (48.0996)
- Contact
- Important Information
- Distribution Information
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Mexico 2Q GDP | 1.4% | Solid Q2 GDP print supporting on-hold policy rate consensus |
| Mexico 1H CPI Inflation | 3.26% | Consumer prices rising above target mid-point |
| Gold Price Rally | 4700 $ | Gold rally from 4400 $ area up towards 4700 $ supporting ZAR |
| CBRT One-Week Repo Funding Rate | 37% | Switch from overnight rate (40%) to policy rate (37%) for one-week repo auctions |
Reports in this series
EMFX Weekly is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 25, 2026.
- Jul 21EMFXWeekly 20260721 en
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Mexico 2Q GDP: 1.4 % (Q2)
- Mexico 1H CPI Inflation: 3.26 % (1H)
- Gold Price Rally: 4700 $ (Current / Last 10 days)
- CBRT One-Week Repo Funding Rate: 37 % (Current) · Source: CBRT