Asia Macro Weekly

Latest edition · July 10, 2026

Asia Macro Weekly China s growth slower in Q2 faster in H2 1

This report outlines the Q2 2026 slowdown in China's GDP growth and forecasts a V-shaped recovery in H2 supported by existing fiscal facilities. It also provides regional updates for India, Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea.

China's Q2 2026 GDP growth is projected to slow to 4.5% due to an extended spring break, fiscal pullback, and Middle East conflict-related oil shocks. ANZ Research remains optimistic for a V-shaped recovery in H2 2026, maintaining a 4.8% full-year forecast. Fiscal policy is shifting from aggressive stimulus to de-risking, utilizing remaining quotas from government bonds and policy financing facilities to stabilize growth. The report also highlights regional monetary policy outlooks, including a potential rate hike by the Bank of Korea and robust growth in Singapore.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.China's Q2 2026 GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.5% due to fiscal pullback and external shocks.
• 2.The economy is expected to see a V-shaped recovery in H2 2026, supported by unspent fiscal quotas.
• 3.Policy focus is shifting from stimulus to de-risking as local government fiscal pressures mount.

What this series covers

• Key view
• The spring break is over
• The fiscal pullback
• Outlook in H2
• Upcoming events and data
• Data calendar
• Forecasts
• Scheduled central bank meeting dates in 2026
• Recent insights
• Acronyms and abbreviations
• Contacts
• Important Notice

Edition archive

• Asia Macro Weekly China s growth slower in Q2 faster in H2 1

  July 10, 2026

• Asia Macro Weekly Bracing for El Ni o risks and buffers across Asia 1

  July 3, 2026

• Asia Macro Weekly deteriorating external balance weighs on PHP outlook 1

  June 26, 2026

• Asia Macro Weekly supply shock peaks risks linger

  June 19, 2026

• Asia Macro Weekly tightening cycle deepens 1

  June 12, 2026

• Asia Macro Weekly Asia s export resilience a product perspective

  June 5, 2026