Report published September 24, 2026

Allianz Climate Economics Report 2026: A Year of Escalating Costs

Allianz · September 24, 2026

The inaugural Allianz Climate Economics Report estimates that Europe's 2026 heatwaves cost EUR113bn (0.46% of GDP) in lost economic growth, while a forming 'super El Niño' could reduce 2027 global GDP by USD451bn. It warns that disaster management remains overly reactive, calling for structural prevention and pre-arranged adaptation financing.

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Finvaulta summarizes Allianz's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Europe's 2026 summer heatwaves caused an estimated output loss of EUR113bn (USD128bn) across 30 nations (0.46% of combined GDP), with Italy, Germany, and France bearing nearly two-thirds of total monetary losses.
2.An intensifying El Niño is projected to peak in late 2026 and inflict a net output loss of USD451bn in 2027 (0.24% of GDP across 144 nations), alongside lifting global headline inflation by 0.42pp and food inflation by 0.65pp.
3.Global extreme-weather economic losses dropped 32% in 2025 to USD210bn (insured losses USD79bn), yet remained 20% higher than the 2000–2019 annual average, with a wide protection gap of USD131bn.

Executive Summary
Allianz Climate Economics Report
Global climate trends in 2025
Country-level climate risk in 2025
2026 climate event deep dive: Europe’s summer heatwaves
The 2027 climate outlook
Adaptation responses to major climate events in 2025–2026
Europe
Asia Pacific
Central and South America
North America
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Report data

Figure 9: Estimated real GDP cost for the 2026 European heatwave

Metric	Estimate	Context
European 2026 heatwave estimated output cost	113 EUR bn	Estimated annual GDP loss across 30 European countries from summer heatwaves, corresponding to 0.46% of combined projected GDP.
Global extreme weather economic losses	210 USD bn	Total global economic losses from natural catastrophes fell 32% from USD307bn in 2024, but remained 20% above the 2000–2019 average.
Global extreme weather insured losses	79 USD bn	Insured catastrophe losses fell from USD97bn in 2024 to USD79bn in 2025, lifting the insured share to 38%.
Global extreme weather protection gap	131 USD bn	Uninsured natural catastrophe losses globally in 2025.
El Niño projected global net output loss	451 USD bn	Sensitivity analysis calibrated on 2023–2024 El Niño across 144 economies, showing net output reduction of 0.24% of projected GDP.